Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.018156 0.020608 0.023276 0.026398 0.029951 0.033873 0.038533
2025-03-30 0.013691 0.016901 0.020705 0.025552 0.031572 0.038818 0.048222
2025-04-06 0.011405 0.014901 0.019288 0.025211 0.033018 0.042989 0.056740
2025-04-13 0.009568 0.013089 0.017717 0.024267 0.033331 0.045484 0.063102
2025-04-20 0.008757 0.012471 0.017557 0.025058 0.035892 0.051053 0.074025
2025-04-27 0.008056 0.011891 0.017337 0.025674 0.038185 0.056380 0.085068
2025-05-04 0.007516 0.011463 0.017258 0.026435 0.040699 0.062193 0.097346
2025-05-11 0.006812 0.010703 0.016593 0.026212 0.041654 0.065688 0.106343
2025-05-18 0.006266 0.010125 0.016132 0.026233 0.042946 0.069766 0.116596
2025-05-25 0.005707 0.009463 0.015469 0.025845 0.043508 0.072673 0.125141
2025-06-01 0.005368 0.009127 0.015291 0.026224 0.045348 0.077812 0.137925
2025-06-08 0.004957 0.008629 0.014794 0.026002 0.046119 0.081167 0.147859
2025-06-15 0.004753 0.008474 0.014881 0.026826 0.048842 0.088249 0.165383
2025-06-22 0.004303 0.007848 0.014090 0.026010 0.048532 0.089874 0.172973
2025-06-29 0.003974 0.007405 0.013585 0.025660 0.049030 0.092994 0.183669
2025-07-06 0.003594 0.006835 0.012797 0.024699 0.048266 0.093637 0.189527
2025-07-13 0.003481 0.006762 0.012924 0.025504 0.050999 0.101264 0.210194
2025-07-20 0.003354 0.006647 0.012962 0.026132 0.053428 0.108494 0.230760
2025-07-27 0.003253 0.006574 0.013071 0.026907 0.056221 0.116702 0.254223
2025-08-03 0.003050 0.006277 0.012709 0.026680 0.056894 0.120561 0.268602
2025-08-10 0.002888 0.006053 0.012477 0.026701 0.058093 0.125628 0.286164
2025-08-17 0.002700 0.005755 0.012069 0.026306 0.058345 0.128657 0.299368
2025-08-24 0.002598 0.005634 0.012021 0.026692 0.060362 0.135755 0.322772